Hi, folks,

Let me start off by saying I have received no evidence that arrests or raids in Wisconsin are imminent as the FBI continues probing the 2020 election here. 

That said, the FBI is probing the 2020 election here — talking, among other people, to some of the 2020 poll workers whose baseless claims have become central to conspiracy theories about that election.

Behind the scenes, some of the organizations that are involved with election administration in Wisconsin are preparing for a worst-case scenario. 

About a week after FBI Director Kash Patel said arrests will be made over the 2020 election, Common Cause Wisconsin director Bianca Shaw sent the county clerk’s office a packet outlining how groups will respond in the event of arrests. Two weeks later, the Milwaukee County Clerk’s office announced that the FBI tried to interview the county election director.

The packet outlines a suggested communication strategy, legal coordination, the possibility of secondary impacts, and efforts to reduce voter intimidation in 2026.

Much of it is highly specific inside baseball, but the mere fact that dozens of election officials, lawyers, and nonprofit workers are preparing for the possibility of arrests related to a repeatedly audited and reviewed election speaks to the moment we’re in.

“One thing that's different now for election officials is they often fear the federal government becoming involved,” UW-Madison political science professor Barry Burden told me, “whereas just five or 10 years ago they begged for the federal government to be involved.”

A few years ago, the federal government’s posture was drastically different. It may not have funded elections as much as local officials would have liked, but the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency helped audit local election officials and protect them against cyberattacks.

Now CISA is offering significantly less support, and many election officials that have become weary of the federal government’s narrative about elections wouldn’t even request the agency’s help even if it were available. To the extent the federal government has been proactive about elections, that’s largely to probe the 2020 election.

What all comes of this? Some election officials think a ballot raid is likely. Many lawyers think it’s unlikely. We’ll see. And I’ll be sure to update you all on significant developments.

Let me know what questions you have about elections in Wisconsin. You can reach me at [email protected] or by replying to this email. 

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